There’s an article in the NYT today in which American interrogators have issued a report to the Iraqi government claiming that Hezballah has been training Iraqi militias inside Iran. This information is said to have come from interrogations of four Shiite militia members detained late last year, yet the report raises more questions than it does to address concerns of Iranian involvement in Iraq. As the article notes, this is not a fresh accusation by any means, and similar reports have been published by the Times itself. From today’s report:

There has been debate among experts about the extent to which Iran is responsible for instability in Iraq. But President Bush and other American officials, in public castigations of Iran, have said that Iran has been consistently meddlesome in Iraq and that the Iranians have long sought to arm and train Iraqi militias, which the American military has called “special groups.”

In a possible effort to be less obtrusive, it appears that Iran is now bringing small groups of Iraqi Shiite militants to camps in Iran, where they are taught how to do their own training, American officials say.

The militants then return to Iraq to teach comrades how to fire rockets and mortars, fight as snipers or assemble explosively formed penetrators, a particularly lethal type of roadside bomb made of Iranian components, according to American officials. The officials describe this approach as “training the trainers.”

The training, the Americans say, is carried out at several camps near Tehran that are overseen by the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Command, and the instruction is carried out by militants from Hezbollah, which has long been supported by the Quds Force. American officials say the Hezbollah militants perform several important roles for the Iranians.

To some, this is just another piece of evidence of Iranian meddling in Iraqi affairs. If you continue reading the article, it goes on to list some of the roles Hezballah plays for the Iranians, such as allowing Arabs to be trained by other Arabs, apparently facilitating some level of trust. However, Iran’s involvement in Iraq has been long known, and the roles it has played in training, arming, and financing militias has always been suspect. I read this report in a different context.

Hezballah, an illegal militia created and funded by foreigners, has not only been able to dwarf Lebanon’s armed forces in power and capability, but is making a run to position itself as the legitimate coercive force of the country. It has had the capacity to start and fight a war on behalf of its country, with no input from the elected government, and now “controls” significant areas of Lebanon to which it allows and denies access, even to the nation’s army. The training of foreign fighters by Hezballah only underscores the point that the battle for Lebanese sovereignty is a primary issue in dealing with the creeping Iranian hegemony in the region. This issue should not be perceived as secondary to Iran’s nuclear development or their standoff with the West, but is in fact critical to the resolution of these issues. Any discussions with Iran should place Iran’s interference in Lebanese affairs as a priority.

In comments made last week, U.S Secretary of State Condolezza Rice stated her aim to gather support from Arab nations in an effort to counter Iran’s “nefarious influence” in Iraq.  Rice, who is scheduled to attend a conference on Iraq in Kuwait next Tuesday, said she would push for more Arab support of Iraq in terms of financing and an increase of Sunni participation in the country’s politics:

“What they need to do is confirm and work for Iraq’s Arab identity,” she said. “That in and of itself will begin to shield (Iraq) from influences of Iran that are nefarious influences,” Rice said at a news conference.

She also said Iraq’s Arab neighbors could help encourage the Sunni minority to participate more fully in the political process in Iraq and to offer Baghdad much-needed debt relief, which has been slow in coming. 

In response, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has accused the Secretary of “Iranophobia”:

“Regarding Rice’s statements, these statements are not something new. American officials follow the policy of Iranophobia,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini told reporters in a weekly news conference.

“We see the developments in Iraq today are the outcome of the U.S. administration’s illogical policies. The American officials want to externalise the problems they are facing inside Iraq,” he said, adding U.S. policies in Iraq had failed.

 

Iraq National Library and ArchivesWe hear so often of the casualties of the Iraq war, mainly in its human toll.  Yet Iraqi society and culture at large has suffered tremendously as well, one instance of which was the looting of the Iraqi National Library and Archives 5 years ago:

The sacking of the library that began April 11, 2003, was a bad one. The current Director of Iraq’s National Library and Archive, Dr. Saad Eskander, estimates that over three days, as many as “60 percent of the Ottoman and Royal Hashemite era documents were lost as well as the bulk of the Ba’ath era documents…. [and] approximately 25 percent of the book collections were looted or burned.” Other Iraqi manuscript collections and university libraries suffered similar fates.

Since then, Iraqis have once again tried to rebuild their library. The occupying powers have played along, but like so much about the Iraq War, their effort has been marked by ineptitude, hypocrisy and a cruel disregard for Iraqi people and culture.

A recording released on Islamist sites yesterday featured Ayman Al-Zawahiri answering questions from followers and Al Zawahirionline Islamic forum readers. The offer to take questions had been posed in December, and the response seems to have been overwhelming:

The questions were posted in response to Ayman al Zawahri’s December solicitation for online questions from “friendly or hostile” individuals and organizations with the promise that they would be answered one month later.

Zawahri’s almost two-hour-long audio message addresses everything from killing innocent lives to condemning one of the foremost Muslim scholars, Yusuf al-Qaradawi. Many of Zawahri’s questioners asked why al Qaeda is waging attacks on Muslims and in Muslim lands, rather than on Israel. Zawahri answered one such question, saying, “We promise Muslim brothers that we will strive as much as we can to deal blows to the Jews inside Israel and outside it.”

You can read the transcript of the audio message here. Zawahiri is asked many questions as to why more Muslims have been killed by Al-Qaeda than Jews, to which Bin Laden’s deputy responds with denial. He divides his questions into several parts, the first dealing with the murder of the innocent. AQ’s north African branches are brought up repeatedly, and responding to an attack on the U.N offices in Algiers, December 11th, which left at least 26 people dead, Zawahiri claimed that his mujahideen were far more reliable sources than the “lying sons of France.” His group, just in case you weren’t aware, has been active in Algeria. Here is the question and the beginning of its response:

2/1: The questioner Talib Jami’i Tib al-Jazaa’ir [University Student, Medicine,Algeria] says, “Al-Qaida Organization in the countries of the Islamic Maghreb: is killing women and children Jihad in your view? I want al-Zawahiri to answer me about those who kill the people in Algeria. What is the legal evidence for killing the innocents? The blood of sixty Muslims was spilled on the 11th of December in Algeria, and al-Qaida claims for itself an explosion in which Muslims who worship Allah (the Glorious and Great) alone died. There is no power nor strength except with Allah. So congratulations to the champion al-Zawahiri and Droukdel on the killing of the innocent students, children and women in this ‘Eid. What is the sin of the innocent? Allah suffices us and is the best of protectors against you.”

(Zawahiri’s responses in italics) My reply to Talib Jami’i Tib al-Jazaa’ir is the same as my reply to the previous questioner, but I add that those who were killed on the 11th of December in Algeria are not from the innocents. Rather, according to the communiqué from the brothers in al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, they are from the Crusader unbelievers and the government troops who defend them. Our brothers in al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb are more truthful, more just and more righteous than the lying sons of France who have sold Algeria to it and America, and who woo Israel in order for the head of the Crusade, America, to be pleased with them. These criminals who have attacked the Shari’ah and excluded it from government by force and rigging, and who have killed hundreds of thousands of innocent Muslims, and who help the Americans and their Crusader allies to kill millions of Muslims cannot possibly be truthful nor just.

The second group of questions focuses on Iran, although not much is necessarily answered. There was ample criticism of Hezballah and Hamas, excerpts of which follow:

On the Shiaa laity:

My response to the first question of Taalib al-Du’aa is that my stance towards the Shi’ite laity is the stance of the men of knowledge of the people of the Sunnah, which is that they are excused through their ignorance. As for those who participated with their leaders in cooperating with the Crusader and attacking the Muslims, their status in that case is that of the groups refraining from the laws of Islam. As for their laity who haven’t
participated in aggression against the Muslims, and didn’t fight under the standard of the global Crusade, our way with them is invitation and displaying of facts, and clarifying the extent of the crimes committed by their leaders against Islam and Muslims, and how they cooperated with the Crusaders in the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, and how they claim to defend the People of the House [of the Prophet] but when they fought each other, they destroyed the two domes of al-Husayn and al-Abbas (with both of whom Allah was pleased), and how they claim that their goal is the liberation of Palestine, but Hassan Nasrullah welcomes the international Crusader forces which occupied Lebanon and came between its people and the Jihad in Palestine, and Rafsanjani states that we don’t aim to remove Israel, and Iran is a member of the United Nations with Israel, and the United Nations charter obligates all members to respect the unity and safety of the other members territories and sovereignty.

And on his criticism of Hamas by audio tape:

Why do you intentionally direct sharply-worded advice to HAMAS through audio recordings? The one who is keen on Islamic unity and the supreme interest seeks other methods of offering advice and understanding the other’s stance by way of channels of dialogue, not media channels.

I warn my brothers the Muslims in Palestine and outside it from an orientation spreading amongst the leaderships of a well-known Islamic group and among political leaderships affiliated with Islamic activism in  Palestine, [an orientation] which calls for setting up a Palestinian state on the parts of Palestine which were occupied after 1967 and forgetting the parts of Palestine which were stolen before that. The mask fell away from this orientation in the Makkah accord which gave up four-fifths of Palestine, and al- Qardawi – as is clear from his words – supports this orientation.
Thus, the Muslim Ummah in Palestine and everywhere must be extremely wary of that orientation and confront it with strength and resolve. As for her second question regarding the criticism of HAMAS, I would like to bring three things to the attention of the noble sister:
The first is that I took a gradual approach with HAMAS, from support to repeated advice to warning to general criticism, but when they signed the Makkah accord, frank criticism was a must. I took a gradual approach with them, but they didn’t heed the opinion of their brothers and continued in what they had plunged into, from their entering the elections in compliance with the secular constitutions to their abandonment of their brothers in Chechnya and finishing up with their abandonment of four-fifths of Palestine in Makkah.
The second is that I always differentiated in my messages between the political leaders of HAMAS and the Mujahideen of HAMAS and the rest of the Mujahideen in Palestine. I  riticized the leaders of HAMAS and will continue to criticize them as long as they adhere to the secular Palestinian constitution and as long as they don’t declare their abandonment of the Makkah accord. As for the Mujahideen of HAMAS and the rest of
the Mujahideen in Palestine, I supported them and continue to support them, and I call on the Ummah to aid them, especially the tribes of the Sinai. Some criticized me as acting aimlessly, one time offering my condolences to the Ummah on HAMAS and another time requesting support for it, but this is not fair, for my
words are clear, public and on tape. I offered my condolences to the Ummah – and continue to offer my condolences to it – on the political leadership of HAMAS, and I requested the Ummah – and continue to request it – to aid all the Mujahideen in Palestine, including the Mujahideen of HAMAS.

He does make it clear that he in no way regards Hamas and Fatah as equals:

I don’t agree with those who make HAMAS and Fatah equals. HAMAS is a movement which stresses its affiliation with Islam, whereas Fatah is a secular movement. And I don’t agree with declaring HAMAS’s leaders to be unbelievers. Declaring individuals to be unbelievers is a serious matter in which there must be the presence of prerequisites and the absence of impediments. So I advise my brothers to abandon this issue and focus on supporting HAMAS if it is correct and criticizing it if it errors in a fair, scientific, invitational way.

The third set of questions deal primarily with Egypt. Al-Zawahiri is asked about the renunciation of violence last year by 135 members of his former group Al-Jihad, to which he replies that the organization he belonged to has since joined AQ and adds that they never renounced a thing:

al-Jihad Organization is a generic name. If, however, you mean the al-Jihad Group which I was honored to belong to, then it has not recanted – by the grace of Allah – for two reasons: the first is that it united with al-Qaida Group in the group Qaida al- Jihad, and the second is that those who have compromised are a man  who left the group, and not just that, but left the path of Jihad entirely approximately 15 years ago, along
with a group of prisoners, some of whom used to be members in the group, others of whom split with it, and  still others who never joined it in the first place. As for the Group, it hasn’t recanted: on the contrary, its leadership and the vast majority of its captives continue – by the grace of Allah – to be resolute on the truth. And the government media uses description without any truth to it, like “al-Qaida’s mufti,” “Amir of Egyptian
Islamic Jihad,” and “Taliban’s military advisor.”

He goes on to talk about his family in Egypt, the possibility of a branch of Al-Qaeda opening in his home country (in response to someone eager to “join the caravan”), and declares the State Security, which routinely investigates and detains Islamists, to be fair game. Questions on Lebanon, Iran’s conflict with America, and more on Zawahiri’s views of other Islamist groups round up the transcript, with a final note concluding “the first installment.”

Israel still fears some form of retaliation from Hezballah in response to the assassination of Imad Mugniyeh, and a report in Haaretz suggests that a shuffle of Syrian forces on its borders may signal a coming attack from Nasrallah & co.  A more defensive military posture from Syria indicates an expectation that Israeli retaliation to any rocket attacks from Lebanon will be widespread and severe:

According to defense sources in Israel, the Syrians are preparing for the likelihood that Israel’s response to a Hezbollah attack will be severe and may result in a regional confrontation.

Senior political sources told Haaretz that Syria and Hezbollah are in close and constant coordination. They say that Hezbollah will not carry out an offensive operation against Israel without Syria being fully updated on the group’s plans.

In recent months the Syrian army has held a defensive posture on a fairly broad level. This posture has been bolstered after the Mughniyah’s assassination, and are reminiscent of the preparations made by the Syrian armed forces in the summer of 2007, before the Israel Air Force attack in northeast Syria.

Israel sees the Syrians’ readiness mostly in their missile units, as well as in artillery and rocket battalions. There is also a bolstering of forces along the border with Lebanon, which seems to follow growing domestic tensions there as a result of a deadlock in the process for selecting a new president.

Smaller units have also been deployed in other areas, and an effort is evident to raise the level of preparedness of reserve units. 

Meanwhile, Iran is still busy arming and training illegal militias in Iraq.  Kimberly Kagan of the Institute for the Study of War writes in the WSJ about the Persian state’s proxy war against the U.S in Iraq:

The recent fighting in Iraq has also revealed much about our enemies. The intensity of Special Groups activities rose from January to March; U.S. and Iraqi forces found the large caches of EFPs and new Iranian rockets that often precede a Special Groups offensive. The Basra operations seem to have prompted the Special Groups and the Mahdi Army to launch this offensive prematurely, not according to plan. It did not succeed.

Iran and Mr. Sadr could not simply unleash a floodtide of violence that would overwhelm Iraqi Security Forces partnered with U.S. units, because they are more capable of handling the situation. For all of his nationalist rhetoric, Mr. Sadr is evidently not in control of his movement — it appears that the decision to fight or not rested with the Qods Force commander and not with him. But Mr. Sadr’s militia remains a reserve from which the Special Groups can and will draw in crisis.

These events provide an enormous opportunity for either the U.S. or for Iran – and whichever state responds most intelligently and quickly to the circumstances on the ground will gain the benefit. The U.S. should encourage the Iraqi government to defeat Iran’s proxies and agents, and should provide the requisite assistance. It should encourage and support the Iraqi government’s laudable determination to establish the rule of law throughout Iraq, not just where U.S. forces are present.

Which in itself is a sign that the IA is not yet capable of ensuring security and sovereignty to its government and country. The British have taken note as well, and a planned spring withdrawal of around 1500 soldiers will have to be put off. Britain’s Defense secretary, speaking to the House of Commons, said that “it is prudent that we pause any further reductions while the current situation is unfolding.” The apparent lack of success in Basra has been attributed to a fierce resistance from the Sadr-loyal Mahdi Army, who kept their positions so secure in the oil rich southern city of the country that the IA called in backup from its coalition partners.

Iraq’s Prime Minister, realizing the significance of the operation, begged to differ in another one of those ever-familiar situations in the Middle East where victory is claimed and the real losers are forgotten about:

Maliki said the offensive was aimed at criminal elements, not Sadr’s Mahdi Army, which is a rival to the militia of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, a key component of Iraq’s coalition government. The two Shiite militias are vying for power in southern Iraq, and Basra, with its port and oil, is the biggest prize there when local elections take place this fall.

Sadr has said Maliki is trying to crush him before the balloting to ensure that the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council controls Basra.

The Iraqi prime minister had a different take. In a statement released Tuesday, Maliki said the “success of the rule of law plan” in Basra would allow him to launch several reconstruction projects to help the city.

Here’s the video, via MEMRI, which features an interview clip aired on Iraqi television last month. Come for a glimpse at how important the Imam Mahdi is to a Shiite, and stay for the prophetic “Adnan and Lina” cartoons which signal the coming of WWIII:

Interviewer: Didn’t you ever try to meet the son of the Imam?

“Abu Sajjad”: I often asked to meet him, but they said it was impossible. So I asked to have a look at his picture, but they said that any cell phone or camera that takes his pictures burns up.

[…]

He said: “I’d like to show you one of the signs that the Imam has come, so that you will be sure that the Imam is here with us, and that the Day of Resurrection is imminent.” He wanted me to be fully convinced. What he showed me was very strange. He switched on the TV, and played me “Adnan and Lina” cartoons which said that World War III would break out in 2008. He said that this was one of the signs that in 2008, the Imam Al-Mahdi would come. I began to have my doubts. True, I am not that educated, but I’m not that naïve either.

The assault on Shiaa militias in Basra (read that link), Iraq was touted as a major test for the nation’s army and government. Addressing militia members, many of whom belong to groups with close ties to national leadership, Prime Minister Nouri AlIraq Soldier-Maliki issued a 3-day ultimatum on Wednesday ordering gunmen to turn over their weapons and sign a pledge renouncing violence. Failure to meet this demand would result in outlaw status. Maliki has staked his political reputation on this campaign, and a decisive response to the ongoing clashes between militias in the oil-rich city was in demand.

Nevertheless, it seems the Iraqi Army is struggling to rout militias on its own, putting into perspective the decisions at stake in the next U.S presidential election. From the IHT:

The strikes by American warplanes in Basra, one on a militia stronghold and a second on a mortar team that was attacking Iraqi forces, were made at the request of the Iraqi Army, said Major Tom Holloway, a spokesman for the British Army in Basra.

Holloway said that the Americans conducted the air attack because the Iraqi security forces did not have aircraft capable of making such strikes. American and British forces have been flying surveillance runs over Basra since the latest fighting in the city began this week.

“I think the point here is actually that the Iraqis are capable, they are strong and they have been engaging successfully,” Holloway said.

The strike on the mortar team was made at about 9 p.m. Thursday by a U.S. Navy fixed wing plane, U.S. military officials said.

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, who on Wednesday set a 72-hour deadline for the militias in Basra to lay down their arms or face harsh consequences, said Friday that cash rewards would be offered to anyone in Basra who turned in heavy weapons or artillery. Maliki, who has staked his political credibility on the Basra campaign, said the cash offer would extend until April 8.

Sadr has urged his men not to hand in their arms to a government ‘that won’t end the U.S occupation‘. Maliki in turn called his foes “worse than Al-Qaeda”, ensuring he will continue this fight “until the end.”

British involvement has also risen, and U.S President George Bush has called this Shiaa on Shiaa struggle as “a defining moment in the history of a free Iraq.” Both Bush and the Iraqi Government have a lot at stake in this fight, and Maliki’s decided he won’t be leaving Basra until its over.

Update: For video, click to Read more

A few months ago I asked whether the Turkish army would defy the pleas of its allies and launch what all the papers are calling a “major incursion” into Northern Iraq, as part of their ongoing battle with PKK militants.  Turkey had periodically shelled areas of N. Iraq, but sentiments were still expressed that this would not escalate into a significant operation. Subsequent actions by the Turkish military however only grew in capacity, with air strikes climbing in frequency, giving U.S diplomats an ever augmenting political migraine.

Yesterday, thousands of Turkish troops were sent into the Kurdish dominated area in order to destroy the bases from which the militants are operating, according to Turkish television. U.S officials have disputed that figure, claiming the troops involved were in the hundreds. Either way, the situation looks to get increasingly hostile, and a Turkish military source suggested the operation would last up to 15 days.

Turkey’s military said the cross-border offensive, possibly the largest in a decade, would continue until they had stopped the threat from PKK rebels, who have been using northern Iraq as a base to stage attacks in Turkey.

It said in a statement 24 PKK rebels and five soldiers were killed in clashes in Iraq. It also said at least 20 rebels were killed in separate aerial attacks.

The United States urged Turkey, a key regional ally, to limit its offensive to precise PKK targets and to bring the operation to a swift conclusion. Iraq’s government called on Turkey to respect its sovereignty and to avoid any military action which would threaten security.

The European Union and the United Nations also urged restraint, fearing the offensive could jeopardize the most stable region in Iraq at a time when security is improving, and also rekindle tensions between Turks and ethnic Kurds.

The Turkish military said its troops had entered Iraq late on Thursday to destroy PKK camps and hunt rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been battling for decades to create a Kurdish homeland in southeast Turkey.

The operations inside Iraq will intensify tomorrow,” said a Turkish military source, who declined to be named. (link)

Very possibly, and they’re stepping up the threats to the ‘rebels’ over the border.  Although an incursion, or what the article describes as a raid, is may not be happening immediately it seems the Turkish military is close to getting full government approval for military action. ME Times: Iraq incursion threat is what Turkish generals were waiting for.

Erdogan confirmed Wednesday the government was drafting a motion asking parliament to authorize the deployment of Turkish soldiers abroad - a move required by the constitution.

“The preparations for a motion have started and are continuing,” he said.

The draft could be submitted to parliament as early as next week, political sources said.

Ankara’s move comes after PKK militants were blamed for attacks, this weekend, which killed 15 soldiers, most of them in Turkey’s southeast Sirnak province near Iraq’s northern border.

It was the worst death toll - 13 soldiers in one attack alone - since 1995.

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